Donkey Boy vs D-Bag

March 10-12th, 2009

"I'm going to play some big pots", I proclaimed.

We were driving down to Harrah's Resorts, making a Atlantic City run after a long hiatus. Mudmucker had just informed me that he wasn't going to play any poker, because he didn't feel like grinding it out for hours. I concurred; I wasn't going to grind it out either, and that's when I announced my aforementioned strategy aloud.

After sucking down some oysters and drinks at happy hour at Phillips on the 2nd day, I finally sat down for some $1-2 no-limit poker at the card room in Caesars. After a few hands, I got dealt A-5 of clubs in the big blind. A d-bag, the only person at the table wearing sunglasses (lightly tinted, so clearly it was for looking cool and not to obscure his eyes), raised it to $11 from the cut-off [he had raised 3 out of the last 4 pots]. I called and the flop came 10 high with 2 clubs. I checked, and d-bag led out for a pot sized raise of about $30. My previous tight poker incarnation would have just called, but this time, sticking to my new anti-grinder mindset, I popped it to $100- about what he had remaining in his stack. We got all the money in the middle for about $10 more, and after a blank on the turn, I hit the club on the river. I showed my nut flush, and he smirked before finally mucking. I assumed I had cracked either a pair of jacks or higher.

He muttered something about having been rivered 3 times already, and told me, "Nice hand, donkey boy. Keep playing that way."

"Thanks", I replied.

The d-bag soon changed seats at the table, moving from my right to my left. He continued to spew off chips to everyone at the table, busting, re-buying, and insulting people the entire time. D-bag was on serious tilt, enhancing his douchbaggery by ordering Coronas with lime wedges, raising pre-flop blind, and criticizing the play of everyone else. When he left the table to take a break, the entire table ribbed him, and we all agreed to "not to tap aquarium glass" (Don't scare the fish! Don't antagonize him, just smile and collect his chips!).

I soon got into another hand with d-bag. He raised from early position to $8. There about 4 callers, and I looked down at Q-Q in late position. I re-raised to $40 and after considering it for a while, d-bag was the only caller. I checked in the dark, and the flop came Q-4-5 rainbow. Boy, was checking in the dark ever the right move. I watched as he put out a $42 bet, which I considered, and smooth called. The turn was a bit scary, a 6. I didn't think he had 2-3 or 7-8, but maybe he had a 5-7 which would have given him a pair and an open-ended straight draw. I checked again, and he shoved for about $100 more which I insta-called. The river came another 4, and I flipped over my boat. He stared for a long time at the board and at his cards, saying he couldn't believe he lost with his hand. He called me "donkey boy" again, and reached in his wallet to rebuy for another $200. He claimed he had pocket sixes, which meant he was behind every step of the way in the hand.

I scooped a few more uncontested pots, and ended the session up $375. By my conservative estimation, d-bag lost at least $1000 in just the couple of hours I had spent at the table. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
_____

Lungfish's Poker Challenge update:

I'm currently north of $70, having graduated from $0.02-$0.04 to $0.05-$0.10 and recently, after my last session, I'm on to the $0.10-$0.20 tables. Nothing exciting, just playing solid A-B-C poker. Still doing cash games, but maybe I'll try some sit and gos soon too. It seems that every internet poker phenom I see on TV nowadays claims they started with just a $50 initial deposit and never looked back.

Lungfish's Poker Challenge

My online sportsbook account has been tapped out for a while now. I'm loathe to redeposit any more money since a) getting payments from these guys seems to get increasingly more troublesome and unreliable (it's taken over three months to get a check the last two withdrawals I've made) and b) I'd rather buy undervalued stocks with any spare cash I have right now.

Therefore, I'm going to try to build up a bankroll with purely house money. How? Well, a couple of weeks ago, I placed 75th out of about 2500 players in an Omaha Hi-Lo freeroll tournament (not bad for my first time ever playing that game), winning $1.30.

I figured that was enough of a bankroll to get me started on the micro no-limit hold'em tables. I sat down at the $0.02-$0.04 tables, and after 26 hands, I'm now at $3.03.

I'm going to grind it out playing freerolls and the micro limit games and see how much scratch I can generate. Also, it will keep my poker game sharp, so I don't get slaughtered at the cash games (which has been the case my past few outings) in the poker rooms of Atlantic City.

My muses for this idea are Chris Ferguson (who turned $0 into $10K in 16 months) and Daniel Negreanu (who is attempting to turn $10 into $100K playing only no-limit ring games). Let's see how I fare!

25 Random Things About Me: Gambling Edition

I don't have a Facebook account (a popular guy like by just can't be handcuffed by that cap of 5,000 friends; I can't tell my other 15,000 buddies to just go take a hike). Therefore, I'm not part of this '25 Random Things About Me' fad sweeping the digital world... which is probably all for the better. After all, who cares about which Jonas brother is my favorite and my hackneyed stories about chasing the dragon in that underground opium den in Chinatown.

However, my pal Mudmucker tagged me to do a special gambling version of '25 Random Things' on this blog, so without further ado:

1) I'm afraid to shout out "monkey" when rooting for a face card in blackjack (part of the blackjack lexicon for those uninitiated), just in case a black guy just happens to walk by and misconstrue the context.

2) I got sucked into a gambling ring in high school. A friend of a friend knew an actual bookie, a Mr. D'Agostino. My neighbor and I became runners, getting paid $20 for each new client we recruited and relaying their bets up the chain.

3) My neighbor and I started pulling in quite a bit of volume, so we ceased to operate as the middlemen. Instead of passing along the bets to that guy in touch with the bookie, we started acting as the house and covering the bets ourselves. We had a short-lived, but profitable two week run. Things ended abruptly when my neighbor's mom got suspicious of the suddenly heavy call volume to their house.

4) The gambling ring as a whole got blown up a while later, when an "in over his head" student turned snitch and ratted out the primary conduit to the bookie. Thankfully, none of us underlings were implicated. However, that student ended up going to the same college as me- whenever I saw him, all I could think of that he was a rat fink.

5) I've lost $200 on the past two Miss Universe contests (Miss Mexico in 2008, 4th runner up, and Miss South Korea in 2007, 2nd runner up).

6) When I throw dice in craps, I arrange my dice with the '3's facing up and forming a '/\' that points towards the back wall like the tip of an arrow. When I'm throwing my come out bet, the point of the '\/' faces away from the back wall.

7) I once had to talk a buddy of mine out of hitting a hard '21' in blackjack. By the way, he's a doctor.

8) We once saw Pete Rose signing autographs at an appearance in Caesar's Palace in Vegas. I shouted at him, "Pete, who do you like in the Reds game?".

9) If you know anyone going to Las Vegas between now and the start of the baseball season, I will give them $50 to plunk down on the Seattle Mariners to win the AL pennant (at 50-1; $50 to win $2500). While they are going to struggle to score runs, they are going to be Rays-like in their run prevention and solid defense. King Felix and Brandon Morrow have ace potential, the bullpen has a variety of interesting arms with different looks, and their front office is now run by very smart people. If Jeff Clement can blossom, and if Beltre and Ichiro can squeeze out a good offensive year, they could win a weak AL West.

10) Out of all the times I've been to the track (horse racing, about 10-15 times), I've only won money once. However, I'm still up and in the black over my lifetime off the winnings from just that one time (and one bet actually). I'll post a detailed write-up at some point.

11) Whenever I play mini-baccarat, I only bet on the banker. The other Asians at the table are writing down whatever it is they write on those cards, and I don't even bother with it. Always bet on banker.

12) The largest bet I've placed on a single hand of blackjack is $200.

13) It was on online blackjack. I have a gambling problem when it comes to online blackjack (yes, I know it's rigged).

14) How's this for Black History Month? I've won money betting on Denzell Washington (Oscar), Kanye West (Grammy), and Barack Obama (DNC nomination).

15) A few years ago, a former co-worker got involved with a bookie, and maxed out his line of credit. He fronted me a bit of cash, and had me use my name to place bets for him instead.

16) I once had to go to the bar at Chili's to collect my co-worker's winnings, since they were under my name. The bookie passed me a rubber-banded wad of cash under a USA Today and told me to go into the men's room stall to count it. This bookie, Pat, was a real shady guy. I remember being nervous that I was going to get set up and rolled by another lowlife waiting to ambush me in the bathroom or the parking lot for the over $1500 in cash I was holding. What can you do? You're either dealing with a shady bookie or a shady online sportsbook. Pick your poison.

17) This bookie we were dealing with actually had muscle backing him up. No joke, this enforcer's nickname was "King Jack Moose".

18) I've dropped $40 in a sitting playing the Top Gun slots machine.

19) The night before I won a 200 person no limit tournament at The Taj Mahal, I was throwing up from drinking too much at an afternoon barbeque with my co-workers.

20) I've never won any money from playing the March Madness brackets pool.

21) I've bet on simulcast greyhound racing at Mohegan Sun. I bet on the only dog that didn't have his tail between his legs in the paddock. Cesar Milan, the Dog Whisperer, said that a dog with his tail between his legs is in a tentative and scared state of mind. My dog got crashed into by another dog on the turn and finished last. I lost two more bets after that, and swore off betting on anorexic dogs for the rest of my life (I would however, bet on fat dogs in an eating contest though).

22) I'm unclear on tipping etiquette for winning fantasy leagues or office pools. Generally, I tip 10% rounded up to the nearest $20 increment.

23) When a casino has its air conditioning on too high, I like to order a hot chocolate with whipped cream.

24) I like to play in the Borgata poker room from the hours of 1am til the early hours of the morning. My purpose is to prey on the drunk guys that come stumbling in straight from club Mixx.

25) I have a weakness for betting on grey horses at the track.

Lungfish's Greatest Plunders and Worst Blunders, vol. 3

This one still sticks in my craw. I'm not sure exactly where my craw is located, but by golly, this particular thing is so deeply embedded that it can't be extracted with a pair of needle-nose pliers and a strong grip. Let's flashback to 2002. The online sportsbook was offering prop bets on the NFL draft. There were multiple over/unders they were offering on where certain players would get taken in the draft.

Now I had gleaned some information from a couple of draft insiders that had been interviewed on WFAN (the local sports talk radio station). They had a strong hunch that the Giants were going to draft a tight end with their 14th pick, namely Jeremy Shockey from the University of Miami. Well, that was good enough for me. I checked, and the over/under was set at 15.5 for him. However, there was one bit of semantics that I needed to be cleared up for me.

Usually, betting over/unders is pretty clear cut. Say the over/under line in a baseball game is set at 7.5 runs. You can bet if you think the combined score in that game will be over 7.5 runs or under 7.5 runs. If you bet the under and the final score was 4-3, you're buying a round with your newfound cash. If you bet the under and the final score was 5-3, you're crying in your beer.

Now in this case, since I thought Shockey would get drafted 14th, did that mean I should bet over or under 15.5? One one hand, using the same logic as before, 14 is under 15.5, so it would be an under bet. On the other hand, if this was a race and Shockey finished in 14th place, that would be be over 15.5th place, right?

Anyway, I decide to call up customer service. Since gambling over the internet is illegal here in the States, online sportsbooks are usually based in seedy offshore islands. This sportsbook was centered in Antigua and so was their customer service. I was on the phone for 30 minutes, asking this question 50 different ways, making sure. There was a bit of a language barrier- I'm not sure what the native language of Antigua is, but the agent I spoke to had a thick accent. The customer service rep told me, unequivocally, that I should bet the over if I thought Shockey would get drafted in 14th position, since 14th position was over 15.5th position. I got his name, thanked him, and got my $500 in on the over.

The next day, the more I thought about it, the more I doubted what was told to me. I called up customer service again, and I was now being given a different answer! This new customer service rep was saying I should have bet the under, and that I was an idiot because clearly, 14 is under 15.5. I asked to speak with a manager, and after being put on hold for an eternity, the manager told me the same thing. I asked if they could just refund my bet then, and again, I was stonewalled. They said that if I wanted to reverse my bet, I'd have to place a bet the opposite way and eat the juice. Well, this wasn't an option for me either, since I'd placed the maximum allowable amount already ($500)... and they wouldn't raise the limit of action they'd take on the bet to accomodate me. I cited the previous rep I'd spoke to on the other call and demanded that the tape of my conversation be pulled. The manager consented and placed me on hold. After literally being on hold for 1 hour, I hung up seething.

I called up my friend, Slewyou, who also had an account at the same sportsbook. I told him I'd cut him a check for $500, if he'd deposit $500 into his account and place a bet on the Jeremy Shockey* under. He did, and of course by this time the line had moved. $500 would only win $333 now. I'd be losing $167, but that was better than losing all $500.

Straight Wager 04/19/02 18:29 ET
381.00/346.36 Result: Wager Lost
Jeremy Shockey - Over/Under Draft Position
Over/Under Draft Position 14
Over/Under Draft Position 0 04/20/02 (12:30 ET)
Over 15.5 (-110)

Straight Wager 04/19/02 18:24 ET
119.00/108.18 Result: Wager Lost
Jeremy Shockey - Over/Under Draft Position
Over/Under Draft Position 14
Over/Under Draft Position 0 04/20/02 (12:30 ET)
Over 15.5 (-110)


* Jeremy Shockey's broke his leg in 2007 and did not play in the Giants' win in Superbowl XLII. After arguments with his head coach and GM, he was traded to New Orleans. He played in only 3 games with the Saints before season ending hernia surgery.

Lungfish's Greatest Plunders and Worst Blunders, vol. 2

A gambler is always looking for an arbitrage situation, or to put it simply, a guaranteed chance to make a profit without any risk (see, my economics degree isn't totally useless). One such situation emerged back on a Friday in March of 2002 quite unexpectedly. March Madness was just beginning, and Michigan St. was supposed to play Indiana in that evening in the Big 10 tournament. However, due to an impending snowstorm, the game was moved to an earlier start. The game started at about12pm, and by 3pm, Indiana had won easily. My co-worker, who was an even worse degenerate gambler than myself, was browsing the the online sportsbook and saw that the Michigan St. vs Indiana game was still posted, with the original tip-off time, and still open to be bet on! [Editor's note: This was in the good ol' days when companies didn't block websites, and allowed unfettered access to the internet]

He called me over, and we both couldn't believe our eyes. George Clooney in "Ocean's Eleven" says:

"...the house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes. The house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet and you bet big, then you take the house."

Well, the house had slipped up, and we were going to punish them for it. We both emptied our accounts and got our bets down as fast as humanly possible, lest the folks at the sportsbook wised up suddenly and delisted the game. Even after we placed our bets, we were still anxious. These offshore gambling sites were unregulated, and kind of like the wild, wild West. What if they invalidated our bets... or worse, what if they saw this as grounds to suspend our accounts and freeze our funds? All of the sudden, what were both sweating out what was supposed to be a sure thing. We already knew the outcome of the game, we just didn't if know we were going to slip one by the house.

Straight Wager 03/08/02 15:11 ET
261.78/237.98 (paid 499.76) Result: Wager Won
MichSt 56
Indiana 67 03/08/02 (23:30 ET)
Indiana -3

Well, it worked! They actually graded the game before we had even left work. At happy hour, we partied like George Clooney and Brad Pitt. The caper we pulled off wasn't quite on the scale of an Ocean's Eleven, but it was at least a "Lungfish's Two".

Do you know what's worse than drunk dialing? Drunk gambling- it's why casinos ply you with free alcohol, and how they can afford to spend millions of dollars on a replica of the f'n Eiffel Tower in the middle of a desert. When I got home, I flipped on the computer and logged on to my gambling account again. I saw another arbitrage situation. Cincinnati had already played Marquette that day, and they still had a prop bet up on the amount of points that their point guard, Steve Logan, was going to score against Marquette. I checked the box score, and saw that he scored less than the over/under. I poured my money in on the under, and phoned my buddy to do the same. What was going on? This website was going to go out of business if it continued to operate in such a careless manner, I told myself as I went to sleep.

When I awoke the next morning, I went to read the newspaper, and pulled out the sports section.... to my horror, under the TV schedule, there a time listed for a Cincinatti-Marquette game in about 30 minutes! This wasn't a mistake by the sportsbook, the 2 teams were playing on back-to-back days, in the regular season finale, and then for the opening of the conference tournament. I immediately called my friend and told him of my alcohol-induced error. He must've been drunk, because he was going to let the bet ride. I had sobered up, and was going to just eat the vig and hedge by placing a bet on the over. I had to make a $500 deposit into my account, having emptied it on this foolish bet.

Straight Wager 03/09/02 11:04 ET
500.00/525.00 (paid 1025.00) Result: Wager Won
Steve Logan (Cincinnati) Total Points - Must Play
Points 26
Points 0 03/09/02 (11:40 ET)
Over 22.5 (+105)

Straight Wager 03/08/02 23:57 ET
500.00/454.55 Result: Wager Lost
Steve Logan (Cincinnati) Total Points - Must Play
Points 26
Points 0 03/09/02 (11:40 ET)
Under 23 (-110)

As it turned out, it was a good thing I had covered myself. My friend was not so lucky.

[fade to black]

Steve Logan was drafted in the 2nd round by the Golden St. Warriors. He was soon traded to the Dallas Mavericks and cut from the team. He since has played professionally in Poland, Israel, and Venezuela. He has never played a game in the NBA.

[fade to black]

Lungfish and his former co-worker continue to battle their addiction with gambling. Despite their best efforts, they have both gambled while drunk since.

[fade to black]

lungfish > Nate Silver

I feel liked chopped liver.

It seems that all sorts of various media outlets have been singing the virtues of Nate Silver. For those of you unaware, Nate Silver was a baseball stathead that worked for Baseball Prospectus. He took his statistical analysis to the political arena, and more recently created of a website, FiveThirtyEight.com, that featured his state by state election projections. Anyway, Newsweek called him "the political arena's next big draw". The New York Times dubbed him a "breakout online star". What's the reason for all this lavished praise?

"Mr. Silver... had forecast that Senator Obama would beat Senator John McCain back in March. "
...
"And for the season that just concluded, he predicted the longtime basement-dwelling Tampa Bay Rays would be a top team. "

Gee, that's pretty impressive right? I mean, back on March of this year, most people had Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, and the Rays in the cellar of the A.L. East.

Well, let me just point out that this genius, yours truly, was on record having Obama as the next U.S. president back all the way back in April of 2005! Not only did I top Mr. Silver by predicting the 2008 presidential election outcome 3 years before him, need I remind you that I was the first one on the Tampa Bay Rays bandwagon back in December of 2007. I also went a step further than Mr. Silver's nebulous the "Rays would be a top team" pronouncement. After all, who's to say what defines being a top team- were the New York Yankees a top team by being an outside contender for a playoff spot? Well, I figuratively put my money where my mouth was and predicted the Rays would make it to the World Series with a futures bet placed at 100-1 odds (I should get extra credit leaving it just at that and not taking it a step further and have them winning the World Series).

Listen, I'm a big Nate Silver fan. For this past season's fantasy baseball draft, I didn't have any player's stats from the prior season at my fingertips (much less a fantasy baseball magazine). The first player that we drafted was Hanley Ramirez, who we paid $39 for. My co-owner asked me to see Hanley's stats from last year, and I told him I didn't have any 2007 stats, just projections for 2008. He had a look on his face like I had gone off the deep end, despite my reassurances that we were not about the past, we're about the future. Well those projections were the Nate Silver's own PECOTA projections... and using those as a blueprint, we finished in 2nd place out of 14 teams... by 1 measley strikeout. I have much love for Nate, he's a good prognosticator, but I'm like Nostradamus, knowwhati'msayin'?

Let me conclude by saying: Nate=Silver, Lungfish=Gold.

Game 7, ALCS live blog: Red Sox vs Rays

I will be detailing exactly how I got into this situation as the night goes on, but as mentioned earlier, I'm basically flipping a coin for over $1500 tonight.

8:19- Red Sox go up early on a Dustin Pedroia solo shot. F' me. You might be asking yourself why I didn't hedge my bet by betting about $800 to win $725 on the Red Sox (I could have probably even placed $250 to win $750 after the Rays were on top 3-1). Well, there's no money left in my online sportsbook account. I donked off my money betting on stupid things like China winning more medals than the United States... and my sportsbook account has been erratic in its payouts. My plan is no more deposits and make one last withdrawal after getting this payday. Then I'll re-invest in a more trustworthy site, if one exists. :Sigh:, it's so hard to find a good bookie nowadays.

8:33- Rays go down in order in the bottom half of the first. Lester looks on tonight. Damn, I was hoping for the tired looking Lester of last start. Lefties have done well all year against the Rays so I'm very concerned with Lester's early good stuff.

I'm very familiar with both teams. We had Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, and Jed Lowrie on our 2nd place fantasy league team this year. The Rays have been my baseball mistress this season, due to my bet. I openly cheated on my baseball wife, the Mets, and may have even caused their late collapse this season due to my infidelity (not focusing 100% of my rooting energy on them). Anyway, tonight's starter Matt Garza was a big reason why I placed this bet to begin with. Shortly after they traded for him at the winter meetings, I placed this futures bet.

8:44- Garza fans Varitek to end the top of the 2nd. Both pitchers are dealing tonight. Runs are going to be hard to come by, and I have the distinct feeling of grains of sand slipping from in between my fingers. I'm like the captain going down with The Titanic.

8:55- The Rays are getting mowed down by Lester. Golly, I think I'd rather be watching The Steve Harvey Show right now. FYI, The entire country was unable to watch the first 20 minutes of game 6 last night due to technical difficulties at TBS, and was subjected to the replacement programming of The Steve Harvey Show. Evidently, whatever the problem was, it was so major that they couldn't even run a scroll at the bottom saying "Experiencing broadcasting difficulties". Damn you, Ted Turner. This led to Mud and I watching the hangdog face on Steve Harvey in confusion at the bar during dinner last night and pestering the bartender to scroll through the channels looking for the game in vain. I ended up self-medicating by pounding 2 stiff white sangrias, and getting updates from Mud's ESPN Gamecast on his phone.

9:06- Garza K's Big Papi with Pedroia on 2nd to end the top half of the 3rd. Let me conclude my story from last night. After I drunk drove home, I flipped on the TV and watched until the Rays were down 4-2 in the 7th inning. Then I went sleep, trying to pull off the strategy I learned from Phil Ivey. Ivey often pays off his prop bets early, in an effort to reverse jinx. He paid off the $2M he bet on the Lakers to beat the Celtics in the finals this year after game 4. I was hoping to change my luck by giving up on the game too. No such luck; when I turned on my computer this morning and saw the same 4-2 score I went to sleep with. Well, my plan worked just about as well as his.

9:12- Rays are retired 1,2,3 again. Let's try this: Jon Lester is pitching a no-hitter! I repeat, a PERFECT GAME!!! Take that, baseball superstition.

9:23- Still no score after 3 and 1/2. This could be the most painful gambling loss I've ever had and it's all my fault. On Thursday night, with the Rays up 7-0 in the 7th inning of game 5, and up 3-1 in the series, I took out the celebratory Remy Martin from my freezer. Needless to say, when Mud left the dejected setting of my home a little after 12am, the bottle remained unopened.

9:33- Longoria doubles down the right field line and Pena beats the throw on a nice slide at the plate! Game tied 1-1. I jump up, shouting and clapping- sorry downstairs neighbors!

9:42- Garza rolls through the bottom of the Sox order in the top of the 5th. This live blogging is at least doing a decent job of draining some of my nervous energy, or else I'd be a complete wreck. Honestly, if the Rays are losing when 10pm comes around, this might become a Mad Men live blog.

9:50- Lead-off double by Aybar and infield hit by Navarro! Runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out. I'd let Baldelli swing away here. Maybe if Bartlett were up, I'd sac bunt; but let Rocco get a lick. All things aside, this is a great story here- a cancer survivor (Lester had lymphoma) facing Rocco Baldelli, the longest tenured Ray who's battled a myriad of injuries throughout his career, including a MITOCHONDRIAL DISEASE this year. This is a great script and it's why I love sports

9:54- BALDELLI SINGLES IN AYBAR! RAYS UP 2-1!

9:59- Dammit, Bartlett strikes out with runners on 1st and 2nd. I'd have sacrificed, as I mentioned earlier, with him. Aki grounds out weakly, and BJ gets jammed to end the threat. I got 2 texts from Slewyou and Mud right after the Baldelli RBI- good to see they're sending their support. They know I'm treating to dinner if my windfall comes through... what these guys don't know is it's going to be the drive-thru at Wendy's... 99 cent menu items only.

10:08- Pedrioa is such a nuisance- he walks on 11 pitches with 1 out in the 6th. He has the worst nickname ever- "El Caballito" which translates to "Little Pony". The next batter, David Ortiz has one of the best nicknames in baseball, "Big Papi" (mostly due to its double entendre in Spanish). I'm babbling now because I'm so nervous... Garza is pushing 100 pitches now, and has run up a 3-2 count to Ortiz...

10:17- Stike 'em out, throw 'em out! Whew... If I'm Maddon, I'm leaving Garza in to start the 7th but with a quick leash... and for crying out loud, get David Price warmed up! He hasn't been used nearly enough this series.

10:20- Lester retires the 3 Rays batters with 5 pitches. Quite a contrast from Garza laboring through the last half of the inning. Tampa needs to start getting more selective with their pitches and let Lester work himself into trouble. His Achille's heel has always been his bouts of wildness. I'm not sure if the announcers are making this point, because I'm watching with the game muted. It pissed me off how much they were in the tank for Boston during game 5. I liked Ron Darling (he's the Mets color man during the regular season), but he's in my doghouse until further notice.

10:28- JD Drew walked on 4 pitches... and Garza's getting left in- NO!

10:29- Bay singles... I feel sick. Where's the bullpen!? Please don't make me start watching Mad Men. If the Rays lose, it's because of Maddon's slow hooks for his pitchers... in game 5 and game 7. Garza's fastball is topping out at 93 now, a few mph off from earlier. What am I missing here?

10:33- Kotsay flies out, Varitek at bat... well, despite last night's HR, Varitek is as close to an automatic out as there is at this point in his career. This has to be the last batter for Garza, regardless of the outcome. V-tek strikes out!!!

10:36- I take a much needed break... bathroom, charge up my laptop, and take my deviated septum medication. I went to the ears, eyes, nose, throat doctor last week and was diagnosed with a deviated septum (my nose whistles when I breathe). I'm not sure if the Medrol he prescribed is working (it's supposed to reduce the membrane in my nose), because while I was hyperventilating last inning, it sounded like tea kettle in here.

10:42- Willy Aybar crushes a 3-2 pitch into the left field seats! 3-1 Rays! Remember in Braveheart, when the English calvary was charging at William Wallace? Well, I'm yelling out "HOLD!... HOLD!!... HOLD!!!" like William Wallace right now. Once again, the Rays will have to stave off a Red Sox rally.

10:51- Why is Garza still in the game? The Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball, despite game 5... and game 5, Maddon mismanaged the pen leaving each pitcher out there too long when he could have mixed and matched with the quality and variety of arms he has at his disposal.... and Bartlett boots a routine grounder to start the inning. Tampa had arguably the best defense in baseball this season too... I guess there is something to be said for lack of experience and playing tight. The Rays have made a lot of uncharacteristic errors the past few games.

10:56- Garza exits and Wheeler comes in... wow, Maddon brings in the closer in the 8th. I don't like this. I don't like him to get 6 outs. Also, Gabe Gross comes in as a defensive replacement?? Where's Fernando Perez, who's much better, and I contend could have caught the GW hit in Game 5.

10:59- Coco Crisp singles... 1st and 2nd nobody out for "My Little Pony". I would bring in Chad Bradford here- he's a groundball specialist and is great at inducing the double play. This is sick. I know waayy too much about Tampa... Tampa, not the Mets, but Tampa. I'm such a baseball adulterer. ***MAD MEN SPOILER ALERT to follow in the strikeout font*** I'm like the baseball version of Roger Sterling, cheating on my old team (wife, Mona) for a younger, more exciting team (Jane the secretary).

11:02- The Little Pony flies out! JP Howell in for Wheeler to face Papi!! Now, Maddon is finally using his bullpen right. Even if Ortiz gets a hit here, I have no complaint.

11:18- Ortiz grounds out. Bradford, the submariner, in to face Youkilis... and he walks. My blood pressure is so high, if I were to get a paper cut, blood would gush forth like a money shot. It's now JD Drew vs David Price... STRIKE 3!!!!!!!

11:21- I can't take this anymore- I'm pausing my DVR, and taking a quick shower. Hopefully the Rays tack on some insurance runs in my absence.

11:32- Done with the shower. I raked leaves at my mom's house this afternoon, and I've been smelling like a haunted hayride ever since. I fast-forward through the Rays at bats and nada.... here we go- I'd leave in Price for the 9th. Young flamethrowers have cut their teeth in the playoffs before (young Mariano and K-Rod) and Price is in the same mold, albeit he'll be a starter before long.

11:34- Wow, it's never easy. Leadoff walk.

11:36- Price comes back to fan Kotsay. I can taste it... either that or I threw up in my mouth a little.

11:39- The captain, Jason Varitek strikes out! ONE MORE OUT!

11:40- WE WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

11:50- Just a quick wrap-up. This has been one crazy ride. I might need another shower, because I was sweating out that bottom of the 9th. This post is already probably 10,000 words, so I'll close with this: stay tuned for my 2009 sleeper baseball pick, and go win the World Series, Rays! They are a true underdog, and a great story.

My Worst Loss Ever

I'd like this blog entry to remind my future self why I decided to gamble instead of save for retirement.

This view shows a summary of your account activity from the beginning of the calendar year.

Beginning Balance as of 01/01/2008: $53,000

Change in Market Value: -$25,500

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 10/10/2008 is -40%

On the upside the stock market bounced back an all-time high 936 points today.  That's like doubling down on an 11 while the ice queen dealer's showing a 6 and catching a 10 to make 21.  You just won that hand and you're feeling like things are turning around even though she's been kicking you in the balls by sucking out on your 20 all night.

Atlantic City Run: 10/10/08

I took the day off because I couldn't fall asleep the night before.  Maybe it was because I was nervous about losing money to the casinos as the stock market continues to take a hit.  Or maybe it was just the pot of coffee I drank in the afternoon.  Nevertheless, I spent the waning hours of night watching Gus Hansen, OMGClayAiken, trex313 and some others playing $500/$1000 Cap Limit ($30K) Hold' Em on Full Tilt.  Seeing those guys mucking $500 small blinds and  exchanging $1K to $30K from hand to hand made me feel a little better about the $500 bankroll I planned to play with on our trip.

1:30PM 

Lungfish calls to say that Moser will be heading out from the city at 4 and should be arriving between 5-5:30 to pick us up.  The plan is to drop off our stuff at the beach house in Margate and grab dinner before we hit the tables.

5:30PM 

Lungfish drops by to wait.  We watch online videos of Phil Ivey playing craps.  He loses $200K in 2 minutes and then another $200K in the next 10 minutes.  He buys in with the remaining $600K in his $1M bankroll and goes on a run to finish up.  Inspirational.  We receive a call from Moser to let us know he's running late so we fill up on some Tostitos while we wait.

8:00PM - 10:30PM

Moser is here and we're heading out two and a half hours behind schedule.  We get to the house around 10:30 but run into another hitch.  No keys.  We end up hoisting Moser up through an open window in the back.  After years of med school and residency, he finally finds his true calling.  Burglary.

11:00PM

None of the Pier Shop restaurants at Caesar's serve food past 11:00 and we observe that even Easton Ave is livelier at night than it is here.  We leave the depressing scene and head over to Cafe Rosa for a much anticipated dinner.  We think that the food is great but maybe it's just because we were starving.  It's like what Eddie says in Raw:

"If you're starving and somebody throws you a cracker, you gonna be like this: That's the best cracker I ever ate in my life!  That ain't no regular cracker, was it?  What was that, a saltine?  That was delicious.  That wasn't no saltine.  That was... that was a Ritz.  That wasn't a Ritz?  That was the best cracker I ever ate in my life."

11:30PM - 2:00AM

Our stomachs are full and we're finally cruising the tables and checking out the action.  The $15 min blackjack tables at Caesar's are a little stiff for us and I'm still wary of the unfriendly dealers we encountered a few trips ago.  The craps tables downstairs are packed but also unappealing.  We decide to head over to Wild Wild West instead.  

I love Wild Wild West because it's down to earth, a little more low-key than the other casinos and the dealers are friendly.  But mostly because I've had some pretty good luck there.  We find a $10 min blackjack table with only two players and sit down as the dealer's reshuffling.  I buy in for $200 and we're off.

On the first hand, the guy to the right of me doesn't take a hit on his 16 even though the dealer's showing a 10.  Even though I win the hand, Lungfish and I give each other an "uh-oh here we go" type of look at the questionable play.  Thankfully the guy leaves after two more hands and I feel better about the table now.  I move over to the first spot, my favorite, and I go on an immediate run, winning 7 hands in a row.  I raise my bet to $20, hit blackjack and I'm feeling great.  When I eventually lose my first hand I feel like saying "well, you can't win them all" but I hold my tongue since I'm not keeping track of how the other players are doing.

I'm up around $110 at this point and am thinking of getting up but I can't because I'm waiting for the drink lady to bring me my free coffee with Jameson.  I mistakenly order it black and it tastes horrible but I drink it anyway.  This free coffee ends up costing me about $60 since that's what I lose in the time I'm waiting.  I get up from the table up $50 and head over to watch some craps.

The table looks crowded but I notice that this ghetto lady is taking up about 4 spots at the end of the rail and a middle-aged indian guy's wife is taking up another spot.  I stand around a little longer and it looks like the table's heating up.  Ghetto lady's man is rolling and he's just hit two points.   I squeeze my way between ghetto lady and the stickman and buy in for $200.

I'm up a little bit after the first shooter hits a couple winners on his come out roll.  I have 1x odds behind my $10 pass line bet when I place a come bet and the shooter rolls a seven.  At this point the stickman sweeps up all the chips, including my come bet and I protest.  She sees what happens and yells to the pit boss, "I took his bet by mistake" to which the pit boss responds, "Make it right and don't let him catch you next time."

The next shooter is the middle-aged indian guy.  I bet $10 on the pass line and he rolls a 4.  I back it up with 1x odds and place $12 on the six and the eight.  He hits the six after two rolls and I press it.  Two rolls later he hits the eight and I press that too.  He then goes on a ridiculous run shooting sixes and eights while wiping out every dealers' stack of chips with the dice.  I'm stuffing chips in every pocket at this point.  All throughout this session, ghetto lady is yelling at him to roll a four.  I back up the point to 3x odds when she finally gives up saying "I'm not yellin' anymo'.  I'm tired."  Perfect timing.  He rolls a 4 and the table erupts.

I'm ready to leave after the indian guy finally craps out but the dealers are counting the chips in the middle.  They tell me that I can color up at another table but I decide to stick around for ghetto lady's roll though just to see how it goes.  She rolls a 4, I back it up, and she immediately hits it.  Great times and I have no idea how much I'm up.

Final tally:

-20 dinner: -13 cash, -7 comps

-5 parking

+50 blackjack

+345 craps

Lungfish’s Greatest Plunders and Worst Blunders, vol. 1

Welcome to the first installment in this ongoing series in which I will detail some of the biggest scores and toughest beats in my tumultuous gambling history. Let’s step into the time machine and journey back to the spring of ’02, when a gallon of gas was a buck fifty and Britney Spears was still smokin’ hot.

When the NBA season starts to wind down, I always like to bet underdogs to win outright. Teams are that have clinched playoff berths tend to coast and teams that are lottery-bound are just playing out the string. A lot of games that should be lop-sided on paper become proverbial coin-flips. On a whim, I saw good value in three road underdogs (Knicks, Grizzlies, Mavs), and decided to parlay them together at odds of over 47-1. I didn’t have enough in the account at the time, having just cashed out, to bet each of these separately. I was on a bit of a hot streak, so this was sort of a heat check. Michael Jordan used to perform a heat check when he was in the zone and sinking every shot he took. He’d attempt a pull-up 3-pointer from 7 feet beyond the arc just to see how hot he was really running.

I kind of forgot about the bet and finally logged onto the computer at about 11:30pm to check in. What I saw was that I was already 2/3rds of the way home. The Knicks had already won and the Mavs had a comfortable lead. The only outcome that was still in doubt was the Grizzlies- Rockets game. A crappy Vancouver team (hadn’t moved to Memphis yet) was trying to stave off a depleted Houston team that was playing without the services of their 3 top players- Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, and Glen Rice.

I sweated out the rest of the game on the internet. As a gambler with action on a non-locally televised game, you're often forced to follow along on the internet. I always find it to be strangely compelling though. Basketball translates surprisingly well to the Java/ Flash based format. There's an overview of the court, with missed shot denoted by a ‘X’ and made shot by a green dot. There's even a little animation of the ball heading toward the basket each time a shot is taken, so you have the suspense of following the ball's flight arc and seeing it it rims off or swishes through. A running text of the play-by-play also streams along. I'll contend that you're able to follow the action better than if you were way up in the nosebleeds watching a hoops game with ant-sized players at the Continental Izod Arena.

Anyway, Pau Gasol, Shane Battier, and Jason Williams were barely able to hold off the Rockets who fielded a starting lineup of Oscar Torres, Moochie Norris, Terence Morris, Kenny Thomas, and Jason Collier (no doubt tanking for more ping pong balls in the draft... and it worked, they took Yao Ming with the first overall pick the next year).

Parlay (3 Teams) 04/14/02 17:43 ET
10.00/476.40 (paid 486.40) Result: Wager Won
Grizls 98
Rockets 95 04/14/02 (20:35 ET)
Grizls +300

Knicks 94
Heat 67 04/14/02 (20:10 ET)
Knicks +220

Mavs 113
Kings 100 04/14/02 (21:10 ET)
Mavs +280

For sale by owner

Prior to spring training, I placed a bet that the Rays would win the AL (make it to the World Series). In their 10 years of existence, Tampa Bay has only finished out of last place once. The most games they'd ever won in a season was 70 games (which was still 21 games under .500). So understandably, I was getting a good price at 100-1.

Future Wager 12/13/07 22:53 ET
bet 15.73 to win 1,573.00 Result: Pending
2008 American League Pennant - Odds to Win
Tampa Bay Rays 11/01/08(12:00 ET)
100 - 1

Although it was mostly on a whim, I did have my reasons. They'd just traded for Matt Garza, who, along with Scott Kazmir and James Shields, gave them an impressive 1-2-3 punch of young starting pitchers. They had a lot of young talented bats as well- Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Rocco Baldelli (who knew he'd go down in spring training with a mitochondrial disease), BJ Upton, and Evan Longoria. The consensus was that they were probably 2 years away from becoming a serious contender in the AL East, but I figured maybe everything could break right.

Well, everything did break right. As of July 6th, more than halfway through the season, they had the best record in baseball: 55-32. I wanted to sell my bet while their stock was at an all time high, so the week leading up to the 4th of July, I put the word out that I was willing to sell my share of the bet for $500. If the bet hit, the I'd cut a check to buyer for the full amount of $1,573. Despite a few nibbles, nothing materialized and the Rays proceeded to limp into the All-Star break with 7 straight losses. Flash forward to today, and their once impressive 5.5 game lead has dissipated. They're now tied with the Red Sox for 1st with the red-hot Yankees only 3 games back. At this point I'd sell my bet for a six-pack of Coronas. In fact, if you buy now, I'll throw in my 37 shares of Lehman Brothers stock (I bought in March- this just sickens me) for the low, low price of a six-pack and a box of donuts.

Lesson learned: I should've used Craigslist.

Jia You! (that's Chinese- look up the meaning)

Due to overwhelming feedback from my first post (read: none), I'll post my action well in advance so you at home can play along as well. Today's featured pick is on the Summer Olympics.

Future Wager bet 200.00 to win 142.86
Result: Pending
2008 Olympics - Most Overall Medals - Odds to Win
China 5 - 7

Why bet China when they've never won the most overall medals? Well, for starters, there is overwhelming pressure being placed on the athletes. Having athletes risk permanent blindness, not letting burned out athletes quit, and forcing women that just gave birth to resume training immediately is the least of it. Would you believe stem cell injections?

You may have heard about the measures China is taking to fulfill its hosting duties to the fullest. In order to stem pollution, they are shutting down factories, forcing half the cars in Beijing to alternative days on which they can be driven, and citizens are volunteering to dredge lakes (in which sailing events will be held) of algal blooms by hand. Well, you'd better believe they are similarly taking drastic steps to make sure their athletes have a great showing.

Is there a moral dilemma being on the same side as a government that will win at all costs? Yup. There's also a moral dilemma with potentially having to root against the my home country, the U.S., China's main rival. Not to mention, I'm from Taiwan. Golly, I'm such a heel. To quote Daniel Day Lewis from There Will Be Blood, "I've abandoned my child! I've abandoned my boy!".

This will be a great sweat when China is tied with the United States in the last few days with like 77 medals apiece, and I'm watching the mixed badminton finals on CNBC at 3am.

Chasers

I think most gamblers loosen up the reins and bet more aggressively when playing with house money. I'm the opposite. When I'm up, I like to exercise caution and nurse my winnings. The flip side of that is I tend to chase my losses. In fact, if you ever see me playing $50 hands of blackjack or reraising all-in on a draw in poker, it's a tell-tale sign that I'm stuck a few bills.

Tonight I lost a $170 pot playing $0.50/$1.00 no-limit. Long story short, all the money went in on the river when I made the nut flush. Unfortunately, the river card also paired the board and my opponent's 2 pair improved to a full house. (How ironic is it that I play cards online after work to unwind?) The bad news was that I dropped my $100 buy-in inside of 10 minutes. The good news was because I busted so early, none of the slate of baseball games had started yet.

Doing some quick research, I saw that Pittsburgh looked like a good play against Houston. This was what I read up on from ESPN.com:

"Paul Maholm is in the process of taking a big step forward. The Pirates left-hander has been very effective since the tail end of May and has notched 17 strikeouts against just two walks in three July starts despite taking the mound against the Yankees, Brewers and Rockies in Coors Field. Maholm has also solved the opposing Astros' biggest threats, allowing sluggers Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee to combine for just five singles in 35 total at-bats."

When I saw he was even money against a rookie converted relief pitcher on the Astros with a 6.28 ERA, I was sold. I liked it so much, I bet it 3 times.

1) Straight Wager	07/22/08 17:54 ET
bet 60.00 to win 57.14	Result: Pending

Pirates(Pittsburgh) Maholm Astros(Houston) Cassel

07/22/08(20:05 ET) Pirates(Pittsburgh) -105

2) Straight Wager	07/22/08 18:28 ET
bet 100.00 to win 95.24	Result: Pending

Pirates(Pittsburgh) Maholm Astros(Houston) Cassel

07/22/08(20:05 ET) Pirates(Pittsburgh) -105

3)Straight Wager	07/22/08 18:32 ET
bet 250.00 to win 238.10	Result: Pending

Pirates(Pittsburgh) Maholm Astros(Houston) Cassel

07/22/08(20:05 ET) Pirates(Pittsburgh) -105

Again, you'll never see me with this ridiculous amount (for me) of money on a single game unless I'm on tilt from a big loss. At last check, things were looking up for me- Pittsburgh was up 8-0 late... and if I end up jinxing them by posting this early, I'll be taking out a home equity line of credit to place a 4 figure bet to chase.

Memorial Weekend 2008

Our latest AC trip was about a month ago. Lungfish and I had been receiving free room offers from Harrah's in the mail for the past few months so we finally decided to check it out. 

I woke up pretty early on Sunday and packed a bag of multi-grain crackers and a bunch of almost all black bananas to snack on. I would later regret packing the latter when we finally checked into our rooms that afternoon and discovered that they had finished rotting and had turned into banana plasma. 

We arrived at Harrah's well before the daily 1:15 poker tournament started. Since we had some time to kill, I jumped on a blackjack table. It was single deck and they dealt the cards face down to each player. I wasn't used to holding the cards in my hand and then to make things even more complicated the dealer instructed me to 1. wave them towards me to hit, 2. tuck them under my chips to stand, and 3. flip them over if I busted.  I was already not feeling so hot about this table but then when I finally got dealt a blackjack I was only paid 6 to 5 on it.  Single deck blackjack sucks.

The buy-in for the tournament was $40+10 and I drew Table 7.  I sat next to a college kid who sat next to a grandma and a couple seats down from her was a heavyset older guy who said he just finished in the money the day before.  

I win a few pots and make it to the first break. Heavyset guy who previously finished in the money is the chip leader by betting aggressively and not being called.  I get dealt pocket J's and make it 5x pre-flop to go. Heavyset guy goes all-in and I call. He mutters "you got me" and turns over his suited K-10. But a K comes out on the flop, nothing hits on the turn or the river and I'm out.  Bad times.